My Latest Interactive 270 Map Has Little Change

Harris Continues a Electoral Vote Lead Even As Some States Tighten Up

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

This is going to be short but I have been updating from weekend to weekend and there is no real change in my electoral vote prediction.

Some tightening of polls including Florida which has not been on our swing state list, but it have been seen as having some movement though I still have to call it for Trump.

I want to stress that when you look at how I am calling the states based on latest polls, most of the swing states are within the margin of error. If for example Trump was up 1.3% in the latest poll, but it had an jargin of error of + oe — 3.0% hypothetically, that means that 1.3% is withing the perceived margin of error. As a result that state could conceivably swing either way.

I will also stress that I am looking at these numbers pretty conservatively. I continue to show Harris with a 7 Point electoral College win. There are other that are predicting a much wider lead, but number wise, I am not willing to go out on the limb mmuch more at this point. That said, I wrote the other day on a possible under count of Harris in the polls. That is based more on a gut feeling and a logical theory that I can see happening. It his however a theory and not backed by any…