Member-only story
Polls — A Snapshot of a Moment in Time
The value and the trouble with polls.
VOTING IS UNDERWAY
In some states voting is underway — we may get a glimpse of how that turnout is going in some states soon. Not actual vote numbers but some indication where turnout is highest — thus giving us some clues.
POLLING
There is always a lot of discussion on the value of polls. What is their value? How accurate are they? Some will say the only poll that counts is on election day, and while true. Politically active people, candidates and their staffs, and the media all urn to polls throughout a campaign.
Polls are a snapshot of how an election might be going at a specific point in time. Their accuracy can depend upon many factors. The size of the sampling, how the poll was conducted- i.e. phone, in person, online, how questions were asked, all can play a roll. The analytics used in the poll’s model are very critical as well. At best, they are a picture of an election in a moment of that, that has yet to actually happen.
Some observers pay more attention to tracking polls because while the poll may be off as much as maybe 3%, it shows movement and no matter how much the poll may be off, it it can track over time if a candidate is gaining ground, losing, or stalled.
